🔗 Share this article

Seven years ago, it took just a short phrase to energize a Labour conference and to show Labour was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. While not exactly soaring oratory, the phrase were greeted with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for spontaneous acclamation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

In that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from his agreed text in this way was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in key constituencies above the pro-European instincts of his party. With that single address, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for the party's base against a leader he would later replace.

The Evolution in Position & Closed Debates

Since then, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the EU question had been settled by the 2019 national vote. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, even if survey data indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on the EU

However, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. While Europe is no longer the boiling pot of British politics, a lid that has been kept tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle once more.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation that leaving the EU has caused to the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick to criticize Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and is still his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, reportedly has left Britain with an economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, towers over the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted relationship reset negotiated with the EU last summer provides gains measured in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure & Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is one of those attempting to bypass long-standing interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people by which youths can move between the UK and the EU for work or study.

David Lammy muses openly regarding the clear advantages of being in an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, last week supported a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.

Although the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, insists the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. A proposal involves declaring the commencement of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the following election platform, with implementation only if Labour won a new electoral mandate.

Starmer's Fundamental Scepticism

Yet, Starmer has lately been damping it all down again cautioning that rejoining an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the trade pacts with the US, which he views as signature achievements of his premiership.

It is understood that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. Firstly, he thinks a customs pact is now significantly more difficult because his ministers actively diverging from EU regulations across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost set for the UK to join the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure of negotiations has led British officials that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals with Britain than in proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by Moscow, is seen by key advisors in Number 10 as a reason for Britain to maintain distance from Europe.

An Alarming Strategy and Strategic Calculations

This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper claims Europe is threatened by cultural extinction due to immigration. It contains only one reference to Britain, placed beside a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in British politics to encourage the rise of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from deciding that this makes the US an undependable ally, the government reportedly fear that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Leadership Speculation and The Ghost from the Past

This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not a pitch for the leadership but simply an attempt to preserve the possibility of remain in a future vote. In fact, back then, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office have noticed that Wes Streeting, widely considered would be a candidate for the leadership, is part of a clutch of cabinet ministers letting it be known they want to go further on Europe.

Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, insist she refuses to comment on her position on a customs union because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Danger and A Prudent Memory

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters reside.

It would be wise of him to remember the effect just a few words had for him in 2018. There are options for a big offer on Europe that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should explore them personally, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.